Monday, February 8, 2016
My Buddy CBW was on Fast Money today, and laid out his full chart of where he thinks the bottom will land in 2016.....1575! He again reiterated that 1780 will trigger an accelerated fall. He may be right, he may not, but I will certainly stay short, hedged, and cautious until somewhere near there. I added more gold (GLD) and long term treasuries to the mix. I am up just a few hundred bucks in the green in 2016, but certainly could have been down substantially more than 10 percent. I have developed a list of 10 stocks I want to own once I think that bottom or near bottom comes. And then I will slowly move in to the market over a couple months.
Today reached 62 degrees, so after hitting the gym, I went out and washed the car for the first time since the dealer did it for me after getting service in September. Ernie would have given me a C+ grade. I did push myself to try and run on Saturday and Sunday for 6 kilometers each day. Back is still not quite right, but since we are actually due for three days of high 60's and low 70's, will try to get out for short runs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. A shirtless day possible? Then, over the weekend, we bring in another cold snap. So, we will see how things with this fragile spine work out....
Friday, February 5, 2016
Watched my buddy CBW again on options action today. He showed the chart for 5 different companies from 5 separate sectors, and all 5 were examples of companies breaking their long term uptrend line from the market bottom of 2009. His line in the sand remains 1780 on the S&P 500. We will probably see a few violent counter trend rallies thru the rest of the quarter, but if we breach 1780, we could have a panic freefall. Staying defensive/paranoid for the time being! I also believe that the large U.S. and European banks are holding a lot more bad energy exploration debt than any of us know, and many European banks are starting to trade like penny stocks! We won't get fooled again!
My spine remains pretty much the same....I remain able to lift weights, so long as I stay with machine exercises where my back is braced, and to take long walks. No idea for now as to when running may return.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
On Tuesday I went out for a last longish run in preparation for my super sunday race. My back hurt the whole time, and when I was done, I was really done. Been in back pain since and have been reduced to daily walks. So, the two february races are probably gone. Don't have an idea yet if this is a herniated disc again or some other ligament tear. Therefore, don't know how long I will be down. I got in 5 good months from the 2 months I lost last summer. If you go back to turning age 60, I have probably been able to run around 60% of the time since then. That may be the way it ends, or it just may proceed to harder and shorter periods. Not much point in worrying about it anymore. I will run when I can, and walk when I can't!
Saw my buddy CBW on options actions yesterday. I had sold a number of stocks an hour before fridays close to take advantage of some quick profits I had made. Otherwise, still remain hedged and careful as hell. I have made a return of around 1/2 of one percent in January, vs the 5% loss that the S&P ran into. My bud CBW believes that starting tuesday, we will take another leg down to the neighborhood of 1780 on the S&P. So I will stay paranoid until we close near there.
Not too much else going on around here. Went to the annual home owners meeting last saturday and continued to make new enemies. Some day the bill will come for this lawsuit, and I can't wait to listen to them all whine and cry. Asswhipes!
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Two cats trying to aborb the last 2 feet of sun for the day......
Ran 5 times this week for a total of 46 kilometers. Not a lot of intensity, as all but one of those runs was windy, and my back and knees were irritating me a bit. On Tuesday, I ran 12K easy for my longest run of the year thus far. Wednesday and Thursday were both 8K days that I ran fairly briskly versus trying any kind of intervals. Saturday was the one windless day, but for whatever reason, I was just darned sore and tired, so I just ran easy. Today, while I was recording the 2nd half of the Broncos Patriots game (glad Payton got one more good post season playoff win for what I hope is his final season!), I ran 8K with 6K easy, and 2K at around 10K race pace,wind aided, to finish.
I will try to put in an intense week next week, weather and body permitting, and then taper into Superbowl Sunday. Chris and I are gonna run the super sunday race in Las Cruces on superbowl sunday. Chris is gonna do the 5 miler, and I will do the 5K. Sadly, both runs start and finish together on a hilly out and back course, so we will actually finish pretty close together.
Watching the Cards Panthers game rooting for the Panthers. Ernie should get a superbowl win in his new adopted home, as I doubt he or I will live long enough to see one in Cleveland!
Friday, January 15, 2016
Well, we hit 1880 on the S&P today! I thought we would get there by march 31st, but we did it in just two short weeks. 1867.61 was the low hit last august. 1820 is the low of 2014. Below that, there is very little resistance until we hit the 1500's. I think if we breach 1820, the market is telling you we are heading into a recession. Three pundits I watched today said that the Fed will not get to raise interest rates this year, and they believe the ten year rate, which is at 2.03 today may hit 1 to 1.5 percent bye year end. This actually makes sense to me, as we are moving into a worldwide recession and a massive deflationary environment. We will be closed on Monday for the holiday, but the world will be watching china and all of the other world markets for a suggestion of what will happen tuesday. So, for now, I will remain in paranoia mode with lots of shorts, treasuries, utilities, muni's, and just a small handful of high yield dividend stocks. So far I am down just a half of one percent for 2016, while the S&P has approached a negative 8%, and the Dow and Nasdaq are down 8% and 10% respectively. Pretty ugly very fast. My new best friend CBW (Carter Braxton Worth) showed me the charts today. He says a drop to 1800 is the minimum, and 1575 is probable. Gird your loins again folks!
The weather has improved a bit regarding temperature, but not a great deal from the perspective of wind and wind chill. The are calling for a couple days of 60's next week, but they have done that a few times before, only to rescind their forecast. They have a tendency, like in Ohio, to give you reason to hope, only to dash those hopes a few days later! Anyway, only going to get 4 days of running in this week, which seems fine for my health and lowered motivation. Ran 9K Tuesday with that new workout I did each of the last two weeks.....2 bye 15,30,60,90,60,30,and 15 seconds with equal recoveries for a total of 20 minutes of intensity without giving myself a stroke! Wednesday and Friday were each easy 10K runs in cold, windy, shitty weather. Tomorrow will be a gym day, and hopefully Saturday will be a warmer less windy day that will allow me to do a day of greater intensity.
Friday, January 8, 2016
On December 21st, I blogged my belief that the S&P would close the 1st quarter of 2016 at around 1875. A few days later, I was watching options action on CNBC. Now I don't trade options......they just scare the dickens out of me, but there is an analyst/chartist on that show named Carter Braxton Worth who explains the charts of the market and individual stocks in a very clear and obvious way that I really like. Now, I was preparing to act on my defensive playbook, but he started using the analogy that the market was like a guy you look at, and he looks healthy, but he's really very sick with diabetes, high blood pressure, heart and circulation problems, etc., and to just get out of almost everything. I did that as soon as humanly possible, and set up a completely defensive portfolio of dow and S&P shorts, long treasuries, muni's (which I have had for a long period of time) and utilities. The S&P closed today at 1922. At this rate, 1875 looks possible even by the end of next week! So Carter helped me act on my gut feelings, and saved me around $10,000 since that time. Thanks Carter! I will try and be patient and hold onto this defensive structure at least until we get into the high 1870's.....
Saw the doc on thursday, and he substituted flovent for advair, as the advair burned the living crap out of my bronchial tubes. I think I will be taking all these dangerous drugs until the damn weather breaks, which doesn't look like anytime soon!
Have had three runs so far this week in some god awful weather. Tuesday I ran 10K easy in rain and snow. Wednesday I ran 9K, with 6 easy, and 3K at the end at slightly slower than threshold pace. Luckily, Thursday was a gym day, cause it was a day with a 27 degree wind chill and lots of rain and snow. Chris came over after going out to run, turning around after 5 minutes, and calling it off. Today I ran 8K in 42 degrees with a 31 degree windchill. Luckily, the rain and snow came after I was done. This shit just will not end......
Sunday, January 3, 2016
Chris and I accidentally wore the same shirt for Christmas.....two old fuck runners! When he gets up from sitting for a few hours, he actually walks more stiffly than me! Anyway, Ended up with 1624 kilometers to finish 2015......a far cry from the 2000 plus kilometers I ran in 2014. Of course, I lost two months with a herniated disc this year, and finished the year pretty sadly with lots of bronchial problems that I have carried into 2016.
Tried the first run with intensity in over a month today, due to the fact that my lungs feel a bit better, and it was a whopping 48 degrees with little wind. Tried this workout I saw yesterday in competitor online, and it was hard, but not lung or heart crushing. You do 2 repeats of 15 seconds, then ladder up 30, 60, 90, 60, 30, and 15 seconds with equal recoveries. Takes a total of 20 minutes, and you try to do all of the intervals at around equal effort, so the workout is more a tempo workout than a really hard workout. Felt fine, got in some intensity, and didn't kill myself. Did a total of 9 kilometers today. Have not run more than 10k in a month due to my freakin' lung problems. Even did 3 runs on the treadmill which I hate just to avoid wind chills in the 20's. Next ten days are all due to be in the lower 50's, with 4 of those including rain. No idea what the wind be though.....
Lots of rumors that the browns may go after Chip Kelly for coach. That would probably mean keeping and not trading Johnny rehab, and not pursuing Paxton Lynch, an idea I am not too fond of. Anyway, like they have been saying every year since 1999, maybe next year!