Ben Bernanke's Bond Bubble!

One of the great lies of these last few years is Ben Bernanke's QE parade of bond buying. He keeps saying that he is going to do it until unemployment gets below 6.5%, but in reality, he is doing it to try to recapitalize the banking system. The banking system would collapse without it. If you have paid much attention, you may have noticed that they are not really loaning it out in traditional banking fashion....they are in fact primarily taking risky investments with it instead. They actually remain too big to fail again.....only in a larger and more concentrated fashion. So now on the money shows, you are hearing talk of ending the bond buying process, and every time it is even mildly hinted at, the market drops. So if you are lucky, you got your money back from the 6 year bear cycle, and if you were cautious and held your money in savings or bonds, you have not kept up with real inflation, which is close to 4%. So what will happen when the bernanke bubble bursts and QE ends and other countries that hold our treasury debt demand a real rate of return for their bonds? We will find ourselves in a market with absolutely no where to hide.
The PE ratio for the S&P has historically averaged approximately 16 over the past 120 years.....it is currently at the bargain price of 23.....really expensive. So if every time there is even a hint of the ending of QE, the market gets spooked....what happens when it really ends. And each 1% rise in the interest rate on bonds represents an approximate reduction of 17% in principle value.....what if we were at three or four percent vs the current ten year treasury rate of just below 2%.
So where on earth can you hide. In the long run comodities do well in inflationary periods, so long as there isn't a global recession which would erode demand. Similar situation with gold. As everyone prints money, especially in the case of Japan which is making Ben look cautious, gold should work. Cash is useless as an inflationary hedge. Real estate might work for rental property, but as interest rates go up, the home market will soften again. So you have very few safe choices to make a buck. I have some dollars in TBF, an ETF that shorts the 20 year treasury bond. This will only work when interest rates actually rise. One other position I have for the short term, is DTN, the japanese etf that excludes financials, but this could become very volitile. So otherwise, you sit with cash, wait for Ben to fold, and then pick thru the rubble after it all corrects.....

Colorful Rocks!

Friday was the first day my back had stopped spasming, so I decided to take an hour plus long walk. It was actually cool and overcast, so I was wearing a light jacket. After a few minutes, it began to rain fairly hard (first time in 2013!). Since I was walking northeast along some old rail lines, I came bye these 4 football field sized abandoned military buildings that were used during the second world war. They were opened at both ends and totally empty, but it allowed me to keep up a good walking pace while moving thru them from one end of the first thru the back of the last, turning around, and returning. I did this for half an hour until the rain ended, and then headed back to the old abandoned rail lines. I like to hike them looking for railroad spikes and other railroad crap for yard decorations. It gives some purpose to the walk. Across from these buildings on the other side of the tracks are cement pads that must have been utilized as unloading areas for the trains. As I was turning west to start my return toward home, I came across a pad that was piled about 7 foot wide and 5 foot high with large beautiful rocks. Some looked possible to carry, and for some you would need a damn backhoe. Anyway, I picked up a few small sample rocks and used some landmarks so that I would be able to return at another time. When I got home, Joe was up on his deck so I told him about it and he said we should return there saturday and get some of it! So we did!
On saturday, a nice mid 70's sunny day, we headed there around eleven. Joe drove his 4WD Nitro down the abandoned tracks, and we set about digging thru the rocks and dirt and picking out nice new rocks for our yards. We uncovered some that were just too big to move that had beautiful coloration. We found one in particular that was stunning, and it looked like we might be able to chisel off much of the face. We headed back home to drop off our loot, and picked up my dolly, a hammer and chisels, a pry bar, and a rope and canvas tarp. We were carefully able to chisel and pry most of the face off that one rock, while only losing about a quarter of it. That was for joe's yard. There was a large, VERY HEAVY green rock that I wanted, so we got it to the nitro with the dolly, and then we used the canvas to slide the rock up the dolly and into the nitro. Once back here, we slid it down into a corner of my yard, and I then washed it and set it up for display. Here it is.....

Here are a few other rocks I picked up.

And finally, here is the face of the rock we were able to chisel out for Joe's yard....

Today was a nice sunny day also, so I did a bit of yard work, washed the car, and did a short slow 5K run. Didn't feel great. Sometime next week I should get the call for the MRI. Deb is also probably facing some arthoscopic shoulder surgery, so it looks like we go another year before we get to take a damn vacation!

A Compass With No Needle!

Got out for two short fifteen minute walks today. The left side of my spine has finally let up, now I just gotta get the right side to stop spasming. Anyway, I took this picture today of my biggest cactus blooming. Weather has been pretty good to all my plants except the melons. Either this is just gonna be a crappy year, or I got seeds that are just not as good as other seasons. There are a lot of varieties of melon seeds, and some do much better here than others.
Since I will be seeing the doc thursday and he will most assuredly want to do an MRI, I thought I would try and find the cheapest way I could get this accomplished, other than going to mexico and having someone do one with tinfoil, ball bearings, a horshoe magnet, and a candle. Now it probably doesn't matter that much, because so long as it is a provider in medical mutual, I well end up eating my $850 deductible for the year as well as a bit of my co-payment. So I thought I would go onto the medical mutual site and see what places I could have it done. Now they say that some imaging centers charge about a third of what hospitals do, just as I learned about lab work. My lab work for my annual physical thru an independent lab costs around one quarter of what it costs at a local hospital. So, I thought I would hunt for the elusive $500 MRI! So I got the lists, and there are a few imaging centers in las cruces. While searching, I noticed that there is this "Compass" service on the website that says you can call and they will find you the cheapest alternative for the service you are trying to obtain. So I talked to the nice lady emily, gave her all my information, and she told me that she would email me tomorrow with the best choice. So I went out for my walk, and when I returned, there was an email from her saying she had left for the day, wouldn't be back until thursday, and that she could not find OPERS or my group or account number in their system. So I will try again bye calling medical mutual tomorrow. I am not optimistic. You know, if you wanted to buy a particular model shaver, you could just plug it into google search, and you would get lots of choices of where to buy it and at what price. If you go to amazon, you will get all the prices with shipping options in seconds. Yet, if you try to go into your insurance and ask the price of an MRI, why don't you get a listing of places you can get it done with their freakin' price! Why is the information all secret.....they ask you to try and keep the costs down, but provide no assistance in doing so! The trip thru the medical industrial complex commences for 2013!

Breathtaking.....But Not In A Good Way!

On wednesday, I woke up particularly sore, and decided to scoot to the gym and try to hit the exercycle, skip weights, and come home. I got up there, and when I went to set the scoot up on the center stand, my back went full crazy pain and spasm. After almost dropping the 450 lb. beast, I got it on the side stand and walked around the building three times to try and get the spasms to stop, got back on the scoot, and headed home. I am now in agonizing pain and back on the couch full time. Now I have been fighting this loosing battle for a bit more than four full months. The initial symptoms were primarily the foot buzzing with little back pain, suggesting a bulged disc. I felt I was making reasonable progress until it went off in early april and now again in may. When back pain like this hits your spine, it usually indicates an annular tear, with that acidic disc gel now reaching those wonderful nerve fibers on the outside of the disc causing breathless pain. This usually lasts for a week or two until your disc is able to plug the leak and stop the nerve burning. The problem is that the condition reoccurs easily and repeatedly with more tears in the damaged disc. So the carnival ride continues.....
So, this damaged disc is probably in need of a fix. If it is possible and there is enough disc material left, I may get away with a discectomy. If the disc is mostly gone and the lumbar space is compromised, it is probably fusion time. Now if it is at L4-L5, I would probably opt for a discectomy, as this is the only lumbar region I have not had surgery on so far. If it is at L5-S1, then this is probably fusion time. This disc level was the first one cut up when I was 44, so there can't be much disc left there. Now how do I know it is one of those two levels? Cause those are the two levels where the nerves service your feet. If doctor tom was to bet, I would guess L5-S1. So you are thinking, how does Doctor tom know all this? Call it 40 years of back trouble and 4 back surgeries. I told my friend joe that if it is L5-S1 and requires a fusion, the only silver lining may be that I will be trading 6 months of no running and lots of rehab for finally eliminating 15 years of not being able to sit for any length of time and not being able to remember a time when my feet didn't buzz or go numb.....in any event, I see my doc thursday to get an $850 mri referral and restart the misery of the medical industrial complex...

The Heat Begins!

The early summer heat has arrived. It was 90 degrees today, and is supposed to stay in the low 90's for the next three days before retreating into the high 80's. The national weather service is calling for a very hot and dry summer here, and another one of those dustbowls for the american bread basket.......can you say $20 corn flakes?
Ran 6 days last week cause I was afraid to try my back at the gym. covered 43K total. The day I missed was a lab test and doctor visit in Silver City to try and find out what is going on in debs abdomen and intestinal tract. We will probably be going back to the doc the week after next and she will get the results from her shoulder mri, her mamogram, her blood and stool tests, and her abdominal CT scan. Here's hoping it is all fibro minor. I will get a script for an $850 mri of my lower lumbar, and since they only schedule those on tuesdays, try and get it done in may. Back just isn't improving. Hope I can squeeze out another discectomy vs a damn fusion. We shall see.
Ran 4 times this week with three visits back to the gym. Limited myself at the gym to exercising on machines that I could press my back into. Worked out o.k.....Today's 5 mile run in the heat with no breeze was a drag. Ran in these brooks pure cadence 2's which are one of two shoes I alternate with the regular Newton rotation. So I guess that is all I've got to say for now......

Fear The Church AND The State!

I am a Panthiest at heart....I believe that God is an energy that exists in all living things. I feel the closest to God when I am running or hiking in a natural enviroment, and I feel the farthest away when I hear about drones killing innocent people. I do believe that the greatest majority of all forms of large scale violence and war are caused by the nation and/or the church. The history of the world is a mixture of ethnic or religious cleansing, or state sponsored assaults on others in an attempt to obtain or protect resources that state needs, or some mixture of the two. The most dangerous of all are when the church and state combine to create a religious rationalization for a state's destruction of others. We make much about Iran as one of the world's most dangerous church states, yet we fail to see similarities occurring right here at home.
America is no longer a democracy. This can be clearly exhibited with the failure to pass a simple background check law. Over 90% of americans support enhancements in background checks, yet the NRA lobby was able to scare enough senators with their lobbying money to vote against the clear wishes of their voting populace. We live in a corporatocracy, where the need of major corporations in key segments of the economy make our food, air and water dangerous, impoverish our populace, take away access to medical care and a secure retirement, and render our collective voice meaningless. You add to that the fact that a number of states are discussing legitimizing state religions. A poll of americans recently found that 69% (yes, 2 out of 3) want christianity as the countries national religion. National religion? What will that mean to anyone who is not christian? So you can see, it would not be hard to imagine a christian nation state controlled by a few large corporations eliminating the freedoms of anyone not supportive of their agenda......would that be that different than Iran?.....onward christian soldiers!

They're Probably Gonna Get My Damn Money......

The back was well enough to allow me to run an easy 5k yesterday and 6k today in the blowing west wind. Back is slowly improving, but the damn buzzing in my feet has returned to the level it was when I was changing that tire on new years day. I will wait and see what the results are from Deb's MRI on tuesday. Don't know how long it will be before her doctor calls her with the results. Then, depending on any surgery she might need, I will decide if it is time to give those damn back docs my 2013 tax return. I hate it, but I just can't seem to work my way thru this.
Talked to my boy about us getting into one of his apartments in downtown Geneva for the summer of 14'....assuming Deb and I are alive and healthy enough. We will see. That would put Deb within 7 miles of the grandkids, and allow us to spend some time with family and friends. If you look up the address on google earth and go into front view format, you can see the building. It reminds me of the building we lived in the last few years before we headed west......27 W. Main St. Geneva Ohio.
Everything is blooming well here. Took a few pictures. The roses have bloomed, the golden evergreen has these little star shaped seeds all over, the giant cholla has a bunch of new branches starting, and the big agave has two flowering seed stalks this year. But my favorite has to be the dwarf peach tree that I call cousin it. It has about 30 small peaches starting on it. I doubt that they will get big and edible, so no peach cobbler for me......