Recovery? Really? I still believe that this "recovery" is a very long way from recovering. The Japanese Market is still below where it was 25 years ago, and there were three very large rallies during that period,and 4 even larger declines. It took 11 years for housing to bottom, at a final 80 percent decline. Currently, 1 in 4 americans are in negative equity on their home. The arguments as to weather we will have a V, W, L, or U shaped recovery, or a second recession all seem to still be on the table. What is clear currently, is that giving banks money for free, and then not really forcing them to lend it, or to stop raping credit card holders, keeps those pesky banks afloat. The incredible devaluation of the dollar makes our exports cheaper, and makes all commodities rise as fast as the buck falls. The U.S.Government keeps printing money and trying to reflate us out of this deflationary depression. Trying to reflate out of a depression, as well as destroying the dollar can't go on forever. When we eventually try and protect the dollar and begin to actually charge banks for the money we are giving them, the market has to correct. Also, a second leg of a recession pushing unemployment in real terms to about 20 percent just seems inevitable. I am currently holding Agriculture and General Commodity ETF's, Energy and Telecom ETF's (primarily wireless), a few shares of the "cheap" Berkshire Hathaway-B's (They are around $3400 a share but are going to reverse split between one to 60 and 100 next spring), as well as U.S. and World Inflationary Protected Bonds for when this thing turns. No matter when it happens, you need to stay very flexible, because when the move down occurs, I truly think that it will be very large and very fast! Take a look at the 25 year history of the Nikkei Index and ask yourself if you REALLY think we will be different?
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