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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Why Passive Investing Utilizing An Age Based Allocation Is So Poor!

Back is still sore, but spasms have stopped, and I did a nice long walk around the community today, looking at all the foreclosed properties, and other properties for sale. No way we could sell now and cover our mortgage, so maybe in a few more years.....
Since I have extra time on my hands, I took a look at what a passive index investing program utilizing age allocations would have given you thus far in 2013. I took two ETF's, ONEF and BND, and looked at their returns to date, using a 38% stock, 62% bond fund, allocation for a 62 year old. ONEF is an ETF that holds 10 Vanguard and Ishare ETF's inside it to give exposure to large, small, medium, and foreign stocks in an allocation designed to keep risk reasonable. BND holds corporate, treasury, and foreign bonds thru ETF's like ONE Fund does with stocks. So lets look at the yield of a fictional $100,000 account thru 9/11/2013. In those eight and a half months, your $38,000 in stocks would have grown to $43,241. Your $62,000 in Bonds would have shrunk to $59,048. So your total would now be $102,289 for a 2.3% return. Certainly better than the half percent you would probably get from savings, but probably pretty poor for the risk you are taking. So what happens if we start the taper in a week.....does the ten year treasury rate finally jump above, and stay above, 3%? You will lose more in bonds. Since the free fed money era may be beginning to unravel, will the value of stocks plummet as PE ratios begin to reflect the real cost of monies? What happens if we eventually get a Syria strike, or if the house repugnicunts try and hold defunding obamacare as the only deal for keeping the government from shutting down. That whopping 2.3% return could dissolve in a week. So much for risk reward. It remains a rigged game, where insiders are the only ones that make any real money, and the small fry has to swim with cuts on their bodies thru the sharks. The folks that sell you those nice Mutual Funds, who get 2% to 4% of your return, keep telling you to stay the course, stay long term, don't ever try to time the market, and never never never sit with cash cause your money is not "working". So taking profits and waiting for better market entry points, and making some occasional small term trades are just bad. And taking educated bets on shorting bonds or the market are dangerous. Sometimes the most dangerous thing is really accepting the status quo.......and letting the talking heads, whose track records are often abominable, tell you what you should do.......

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