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Saturday, February 26, 2011

200 Day Moving Average!

Only ran 3 times this week indoors on a treadmill for 4 miles each session. Back feels no better that it did two weeks ago. Will take saturday and sunday off, and if there is no improvement by monday, will probably take a complete week off and see if anything good happens. Hate to give up that much fitness, but don't see much alternative. NM Senior games this summer are probably gone, and I guess I will hope for my one last shot to come after I turn 60. Really do only want to have maybe two summers of racing in 2012 and 2013 and then retire to running 4 times a week for about 20 easy miles. May not get that. We will see.
The Dow closed at 12130 on friday after a not too stellar week. Oil prices will probably stabilize, so long as we don't get protests in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi prince is giving 35 billion in aid for poor citizens (where was this aid before when they take in trillions in oil revenue each year). It looks as though we will have a 2 week extension of the US debt ceiling while the president and the house each posture to try and make the other look like the bad guy. So, economic news in the real economy should be the central focus for the markets next week. If you are a chartist (see above), you will note that we are a ways above the 200 day moving average right now, and I do feel that we will probably correct down to around 11000 over the next two months. If that level holds, that will be a level where some money can be made. If we break steadily below that, a fall to 9000 would not be a crazy possibility. PE ratio's seem expensive, interest rates on the 30 year bonds are rising, commodity prices are accelerating, and at least a temporary move toward 4 dollar gas will eat up a lot of the limited extra money all these poor working folks have left. The new recovery is returning jobs that are paying SO MUCH LESS than they did in 2008, that consumers remain pretty fragile. Do you remember stagflation? May again be coming to a country near you. In the mean time, cash is good, and if you want to take some small risk positions, those inverse ETFS like DOG, SH, and PSQ may be the ticket! Be safe my friends.......

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