Friday, January 15, 2016
Well, That Was Fast!
Well, we hit 1880 on the S&P today! I thought we would get there by march 31st, but we did it in just two short weeks. 1867.61 was the low hit last august. 1820 is the low of 2014. Below that, there is very little resistance until we hit the 1500's. I think if we breach 1820, the market is telling you we are heading into a recession. Three pundits I watched today said that the Fed will not get to raise interest rates this year, and they believe the ten year rate, which is at 2.03 today may hit 1 to 1.5 percent bye year end. This actually makes sense to me, as we are moving into a worldwide recession and a massive deflationary environment. We will be closed on Monday for the holiday, but the world will be watching china and all of the other world markets for a suggestion of what will happen tuesday. So, for now, I will remain in paranoia mode with lots of shorts, treasuries, utilities, muni's, and just a small handful of high yield dividend stocks. So far I am down just a half of one percent for 2016, while the S&P has approached a negative 8%, and the Dow and Nasdaq are down 8% and 10% respectively. Pretty ugly very fast. My new best friend CBW (Carter Braxton Worth) showed me the charts today. He says a drop to 1800 is the minimum, and 1575 is probable. Gird your loins again folks!
The weather has improved a bit regarding temperature, but not a great deal from the perspective of wind and wind chill. The are calling for a couple days of 60's next week, but they have done that a few times before, only to rescind their forecast. They have a tendency, like in Ohio, to give you reason to hope, only to dash those hopes a few days later! Anyway, only going to get 4 days of running in this week, which seems fine for my health and lowered motivation. Ran 9K Tuesday with that new workout I did each of the last two weeks.....2 bye 15,30,60,90,60,30,and 15 seconds with equal recoveries for a total of 20 minutes of intensity without giving myself a stroke! Wednesday and Friday were each easy 10K runs in cold, windy, shitty weather. Tomorrow will be a gym day, and hopefully Saturday will be a warmer less windy day that will allow me to do a day of greater intensity.